Now, however, that has changed, significantly narrowing the potential path by which Kamala Harris could make it to the White House. It is little surprise that it changed, as the numbers were always close, with Biden only winning Georgia by 0.23 points and 1.2 points in Pennsylvania, a margin of loss from which he could recover.
And that change has come, with a recent Redfield & Wilton’s survey showing Trump managing to just so slightly push the dial to his side in Georgia, assuming the poll doesn’t understate his support, and dramatically shift things in Pennsylvania. According to its survey, Trump is now up by 1 point in Georgia, 48% to 47%, and is up by 2 points in Pennsylvania, 48% to 46%, a much larger three point swing.
Notably, the pollsters found that Trump has retained a larger portion of his 2020 support that Harris has retained that of Biden, noting, “Trump retains 86% of his 2020 voters in Georgia, rising to 90% in Pennsylvania. Harris is supported by 82% of voters in Georgia who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, as well as 85% in Pennsylvania.”
It also appears from the poll that some of those who switched to Biden in 2020 have now swung back to Trump before the 2024 election, which makes sense given Kamala’s unpopularity compared to Biden with average voters, and how Trump is managing to get voters very excited and motivated about the election, as seen in other swing states.
The New York Post, reporting on the poll results and how they impact this election, noted that if Trump manages to both win the states he is already expected to win and flip Georgia and Pennsylvania back to his side, then the path to victory is reasonably straight for him, as he only needs to win over one more southern state for victory and needn’t win over the Southwest or breach the Blue Wall, those both of those paths look potentially likely as well. It noted:
The shift in momentum is significant, given these states have a combined 35 electoral votes. If Trump takes these and the states he’s expected to win otherwise, he’s got 254 of the 270 needed, opening multiple paths to victory.
The simplest solution?
Winning North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes would be enough to push the ex-prez over the threshold.
Adding to former President Trump’s chances it’s that the issue on which he is particularly strong, the economy, is a top issue for voters, with the key feature and flaw of the Biden-Harris Administration being the matter about which voters care. That matter is, broadly, the economy, with inflation being a major issue in both states. 43% of Georgians and 45% of Pennsylvanians describe inflation as their top issue.
