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Since his return to the Oval Office in early 2025, President Donald J. Trump has presided over an American electorate that is not merely divided, but increasingly entrenched. A veteran observer of the political landscape would recognize the current climate as a high-stakes stress test of the “Trumpian” mandate, with the administration’s aggressive policy shifts meeting a wall of public skepticism regarding the nation’s economic trajectory. Grappling with sweeping executive actions, significant economic anxiety, and escalating international trade tensions, the administration’s first year has been defined by a paradox: a resilient political base versus a volatile broader approval rating. Despite a tumultuous start characterized by aggressive tariff implementation, market fluctuations, and sharp political divisions, the President’s performance ratings reveal a presidency struggling to maintain its honeymoon period, particularly as trade wars begin to hit the American pocketbook. Drawing on an exhaustive review of national polling from 2025, this report examines the state of the Trump presidency as it navigates the friction between campaign promises and governing reality.

1. A Fractured Honeymoon: The Early Second-Term Approval

In the opening weeks of the new administration, national surveys depicted a country at a virtual standstill. Trump’s second inauguration did not usher in a broad national consensus; instead, it reinforced a split that has become the hallmark of 21st-century American politics.

• The Midpoint Struggle: Early national polling found the President’s approval hovering near the 44% mark, with 53% of the public expressing disapproval.¹ This data, mirrored in reports from Reuters/Ipsos, suggested a closely split electorate that was cautious of the new administration’s direction from day one.

• A Policy Disconnect: While the President enjoyed relatively high marks for his handling of immigration—with roughly half of respondents backing his border security measures—this support failed to create a “halo effect” for his other priorities.²

2. The Tariff Wars: A Primary Source of Public Friction

Perhaps the most significant drag on the President’s standing has been his signature trade policy. The imposition of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum—aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing—triggered a swift and painful sequence of retaliatory measures from Canada, the European Union, and other key trading partners.

Public Sentiment on Trade:

Data from major polling firms throughout 2025 indicate that the “Tariff Wars” are one of the administration’s most vulnerable flanks:

• Pew Research Center: Reported that 59% of Americans disapproved of the tariff increases.³ By mid-year, that figure worsened, with 61% of the public voicing opposition.

• The Harris/Marquette Law School Poll: Found a stark outlook on the long-term impact of these trade barriers; 58% of adults believed tariffs would ultimately damage the U.S. economy, while only 28% viewed them as beneficial.⁴

• Consumer Anxiety: Roughly 64% of the public expressed concern that trade disputes would lead to price hikes on everyday consumer goods.

While Republicans remained largely supportive—with 68% approval for the measures—the policy faced near-total rejection from Democrats (89% disapproval) and significant wariness from independents.⁵

3. The Economic Outlook: Skepticism Replaces Optimism

Historically, Trump has pointed to the economy as his strongest suit. However, 2025 polling suggests that the narrative of “Trumpian prosperity” is facing its toughest challenge yet.

• CNBC All-America Economic Survey: In a rare net-negative for the President, this survey found only 43% of Americans approved of his economic management, while 55% disapproved.⁶

• Inflation Concerns: A central theme in 2025 has been the “tariff-inflation” link.⁷ YouGov polling indicated that many voters directly blame trade policies for rising costs.⁸ In several surveys, more than two-thirds of respondents expressed fear that protective duties are diminishing their purchasing power and straining family budgets.

4. A Nation Divided: The Partisan Moat

By mid-2025, the President’s overall approval rating settled into the low-to-mid 40% range.⁹ This stability, however, masks a deep-seated polarization:

• The Base: Republicans and GOP-leaning independents remains fiercely loyal, viewing the administration’s actions as the fulfillment of a “populist” mandate.¹⁰

• The Opposition: Democrats remain in a state of near-universal disapproval, particularly regarding trade and spending cuts.¹¹

• The Swing Factor: Crucially, independent voters—the traditional arbiters of political success—have grown increasingly skeptical of the President’s economic and trade strategies.¹²

5. Issue-Specific Approval: A Comparative Snapshot

Issue	Public Sentiment
Immigration	Strongest area; approval often reaches or exceeds 50%.
Tariffs	Significant weakness; disapproval frequently exceeds 60%.
Economy	Mixed to negative; concerns over inflation outweigh job growth optimism.
Spending Cuts	Unpopular; fewer than half of Americans support the scale of federal budget reductions.

The Road Ahead: Resilience vs. Headwinds

As the Trump administration moves further into its second term, the data suggests two competing realities. On one hand, the President retains an iron grip on his core constituency, who applaud his “disruptor” approach to global trade and domestic governance. On the other, the broader public is signaling “tariff fatigue,” with fears of inflation and economic instability acting as a ceiling on his popularity.

Ultimately, the trajectory of the Trump presidency in 2026 and beyond will likely depend on whether the administration can translate its assertive trade stance into tangible economic relief for the middle class—or if the “divided and unsettled” electorate reflected in today’s polls becomes the permanent status quo of his second term.